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GEOMAGNETIC AND IONOSPHERIC LARGE STORMS ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING - A PROPOSAL


Objectives:

Based on ongoing research in the EU COST 251 projects, this project has as its aim the support and coordination of a ground-based experimental program of vertical-incidence ionospheric sounders, data analysis and real-time exchange, and theoretical effort to develop techniques for the assessment of large geomagnetic and ionospheric storms. The main objectives of the project are:

support of the current program of ionospheric observation and data processing with emphasis on the FSU ionospheric stations,

development of data assimilation techniques to incorporate all available ionospheric observations over Europe,

development of techniques for the assessment of large geomagnetic and ionospheric storms, in particular, provide weekly the most disturbed ionospheric day and the most quiet ionospheric day,

real-time ionospheric data exchange via the new Ionospheric Despatch Centre for Europe (IDCE) at the Space Research Centre in Warsaw and retrieval via the World Wide Web.

Technical Description of Project:

The impact of solar phenomena and correlated geomagnetic, magnetospheric and ionospheric activity on the near-Earth space environment is a central topic of geophysics. Terrestrial and Earth-space radio systems, electric power networks, geophysical exploration, spacecraft control and scientific research campaigns are highly affected by solar-terrestrial activity.

The ionosphere, its electrodynamics and its coupling with the neutral atmosphere at the bottom and the magnetosphere above, are of general interest. Global and regional ionospheric studies are highly dependent on regular high quality data from vertical-incidence sounders. The proposed project will support ionospheric data collection in FSU countries, coordinate real-time data exchange and studies of ionospheric storms.

A cooperative project 'Improved Quality of Service in Ionospheric Telecommunication Systems Planning and Operation' under the auspices of European Union COST (Cooperation in Scientific and Technological Research) Action 251, has been engaged in the development and validation of improved ionospheric models for the European region (10.0W-60.0E, 35.0 - 70.0N), making use of the extensive ionospheric measurement data sets available in Europe. A new Ionospheric Despatch Centre for Europe (IDCE) is to be formed at the Space Research Centre in Warsaw for the distribution of ionospheric forecast information appropriate to scientific studies and communication circuit predictions. The proposed work is highly relevant to these international projects.

FSU Ionospheric Stations

TABLE 1. Data available from FSU / Russian ionosondes.

StationLAT LONG
Jun 93
Nov 95
Druznaya81.058.0
+
+
Preobrazenija 74.7113.0
+
Dikson 73.580.4
+
+
Loparskaya68.033.0
+
Wellen66.6190.2
+
Salekhard66.566.5
+
E
Yakutsk62.0129.6
+
Podkamennaya61.6 90.0
+
Leningrad60.030.7
+
+
Magadan60.0151.0
+
+
Tomsk56.584.9
+
E
Sverdlovsk56.458.6
+
Moscow55.537.3
+
+
Kaliningrad54.720.6
+
Novosibirsk54.483.2
+
+
Petropavlovsk53.0158.7
+
E
Irkutsk52.5104.0
+
Kiev50.530.5
+
Khabarovsk48.5135.1
+
Rostov47.239.7
+
E
Alma-Ata43.276.9
+
Tbilisi41.744.8
Tashkent41.369.6
+
E
Ashkhabad37.958.3
+
+

(E - only E-layer parameters were available). Therefore, it is proposed to support 11 stations in the next two years. List of stations is given in Table 2.

The list of the FSU ionospheric stations with data availability in June 1993 and November 1995 is given in Table 1. Data were available from 23 stations in 1993. By November 1995 only 12 stations were left, with only seven providing full ionospheric parameter information.

TABLE 2. Ionospheric stations from FSU/Russia to be supported. All parameters will be scaled.

StationCountry LATLONG
DruznayaRussia81.0 58.0
LoparskayaRussia68.0 33.0
SalekhardRussia66.5 66.5
LeningradRussia60.0 30.7
SverdlovskRussia56.4 58.6
MoscowRussia55.5 37.3
KaliningradRussia54.7 20.6
KievUkraine50.5 30.5
RostovRussia47.2 39.7
Alma-AtaKazakhstan43.2 76.9
AshkhabadTurkmeniya37.9 58.3

Data are already available from following five Russian ionospheric stations via URSIgram Service at Space Research Centre, Warsaw:
Druznaya(36901, IONDA, IONHA) - N81E58
Sverdlovsk(36602, IONDA, IONHA) - N56E58
Salekhard(37701, IONDA, IONHA) - N66E66
Tashkent(37401, IONDA, IONHA) - N41E69)
Podkamennaya(39601, MAGHA) - N61E90)

However support is needed to maintain the current data sources and increase the number of available FSU stations. As well as support for routine operation of these stations, a PC is required at IZMIRAN to coordinate the FSU data. In addition, financial support for technical visits is needed.

It is expected that real-time ionospheric data exchange via the IDCE will start in January 1997. As well as the standard ionospheric parameters, the IDCE will provide weekly the most disturbed ionospheric day and the most quiet ionospheric day. The data will be available to the international community on the WWW.

Ionospheric Storm Modelling

The proposed work seeks to characterize the ionospheric structure and dynamics during large geomagnetic storms and to determine to what extent valid forecasting of these phenomena can be made. Since forecasting procedures require a definition of ionospheric and magnetospheric disturbance and quietness levels, a Combined Geomagnetic and Ionospheric Catalogue and a list of storms will be produced. A rank technique will be developed to define the most disturbed periods for European data based on power, maximum amplitude and duration of storm-time, each normalised to their peak values for the whole period of observations. As well as being an essential element of the IDCE database, the resulting classification should be of interest to the scientific community.

Groups Involved:

Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Great Britain [Scientific and financial coordination of the project],

IZMIRAN, Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia [Coordination of the FSU ionospheric stations],

Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland [IDCE coordination],

Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium [Real-time data],

France Telecom CNET, Lannion, France [Data].

Given that the proposed project achieves its objectives it will enhance the capability to process, assimilate and analyse increasingly complex data sets. Real-time data access is also required for validation and initialization of forecasting models. It is expected that regional storm assessments and forecasting should be more reliable, indicating the magnitude and duration of the storm events. Furthermore, a combined list of large geomagnetic and ionospheric storms can be useful to study their adverse effects on communications, human health and biosphere.

Dr Ljiljana R. Cander, Chair
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory,
Chilton, Didcot, Oxon OX11 0QX, Great Britain
Tel: +44 1235 446517 Fax: +44 1235 446140
E-Mail: lcander@rcru.rl.ac.uk

Dr Tamara Gulyaeva, Vice-Chair

IZMIRAN, Academy of Sciences
142092 Troitsk, Moscow Region, Russia
Tel: +70 95 3340284 Fax: +70 95 3340124
E-Mail: tgul@izmiran.rssi.ru
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