Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 17 May 2013 23:30 UT)

Activity 17 May: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M3/-- 0857UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 136/90

Solar Forecast

(last updated 17 May 2013 23:30 UT)

18 May 19 May 20 May Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89 COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with an M3 from region 1748 (N11E23) at 0857UT the only X-ray flare of significance. Associated with this event was a Type II/IV radio sweep and full halo CME. The source location of this event indicates an impact on Earth is almost certain. Initial SWPC solar wind modelling estimates an arrival time just after midday (UT) on May-19. Although small, AR1748 remains a complex spot region with significant flare potential. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate for the next 3 days with a chance of isolated X-class flares. The solar wind speed remains near 400km/s, and the IMF has been fluctuating within +/-5nT. The CME from the 15-May X-class flare has not yet arrived, although ACE EPAM ions have increased significantly over the last few hours indicating the CME may arrive soon. Proton flux (>10MeV) at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the IPS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.