FORECAST SOL: Disturbed red MAG: Disturbed red ION: Normal green Looking for something? Site search go to search page
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Sunday, Dec 21 2014 14:24 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 20 Dec 2014 23:30 UT)

Activity 20 Dec: High Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors X1/3B 0028UT probable all West Pacific Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 203/154

Solar Forecast

(last updated 20 Dec 2014 23:30 UT)

21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 200/152 COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 20 December, with an X-class flare and several C-class flares occurring from active region 2242. The largest flare over the UT day, 20 December, was an X1.8/3B from active region 2242 (S19W45), peaking at 20/0028 UT with associated Type II sweep (shock speed ~850km/s). LASCO C2 imagery shows an associated CME to the southwest. Based on Enlil model this CME is expected to have a glancing blow on 22 December. CME occurring on 17 December has not arrived yet and appears to have passed south of the Earth. Expect Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days. Note there is a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar wind speed ranged between 340-400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component ranged between +/-6 nT. Expect the solar wind speed to remain in this range until arrival of expected CME (associated with M6.9 class 18/2158UT flare).

Solar Activity levels are explained in the IPS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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