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   Home  Solar  Flare Forecast Tuesday, Feb 09 2010 12:35 UT
Culgoora Observatory 
Flare Forecast

Last updated 09 Feb 2010 00:03 UT

     Theophrastus.   Data and Forecast for 2120Z  8/ 2/2010.

               Region Data                           Forecast
               -----------                           --------
Region  McIntosh  Region   Delta   Largest     Probabilities   URSI
Number   Class   Evolution Config.  Flare        C   M   X    Keyword
------+---------+---------+-------+-------+---+-------------+---------
 1045     Eac     decaying            M         96  18   2    ERUPTIVE
 1046     Bxo     stable                         2   0   0    QUIET
 c204     Hsx     stable                        20   0   0    QUIET

               Full Disk Prediction is          97  18   2

The flare prediction system Theophrastus is a US expert system which uses
the McIntosh spot classification system, historical flare rates, spot
growth and spot activity (ie rotation, magnetic shear) to estimate flare
probabilities.(Ref. McIntosh, P.S. 1990, Sol Phys., 125,251)



IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service) is a unit of the Bureau of Meteorology

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