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HomeSolarSolar ConditionsMonthly Sunspot Numbers Tuesday, Sep 02 2014 14:00 UT
Solar Conditions

Monthly Sunspot Numbers

(last updated 02 Sep 2014 00:29 UT)

IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24 Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services Issued on Sep 01 2014 ------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1 2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6 2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1 2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0 2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2 2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0 2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1 2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.0 2008 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 2009 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.0 7.5 8.2 2010 9.2 10.6 12.3 13.9 15.4 16.3 16.7 17.4 19.6 23.2 26.5 28.9 2011 31.0 33.5 36.9 41.8 47.6 53.2 57.3 59.1 59.6 59.9 61.1 63.4 2012 65.5 66.9 66.8 64.6 61.7 58.9 57.8 58.2 58.1 58.6 59.7 59.6 2013 58.7 58.4 57.5 57.8 59.8 62.6 65.4 68.9 73.1 75.0 75.4 76.0 2014 77.4 78.4 80.3e 81.3e 80.5e 79.4e 78.1e 76.3e 74.0e 72.5e 71.7e 71.5e 2015 71.3e 70.9e 70.4 70.4 70.5 70.3 69.7 68.4 67.2 66.1 64.7 63.1 2016 61.9 60.9 59.6 57.7 55.7 53.8 52.0 50.3 48.9 47.3 45.8 44.6 2017 43.0 41.5 40.3 39.1 37.6 36.4 35.2 34.0 33.2 32.6 31.9 30.7 2018 29.5 28.5 27.4 26.2 25.1 23.9 22.6 21.4 20.6 19.9 19.2 18.5 2019 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.6 14.8 14.1 13.4 12.9 12.5 ============================================================================ ----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2 2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9 2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0 2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6 2004 103.2 100.8 98.9 97.6 96.2 94.4 93.3 92.5 91.2 89.9 89.5 89.4 2005 88.9 88.4 88.1 86.7 84.7 84.6 84.8 83.6 82.5 82.3 81.9 80.5 2006 79.0 77.6 76.8 76.7 76.8 76.2 75.5 75.7 75.7 74.8 73.9 73.6 2007 73.5 73.3 72.8 72.3 71.6 71.0 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 69.9 69.5 2008 69.1 68.8 68.6 68.7 68.7 68.6 68.4 68.3 68.1 67.9 67.9 67.8 2009 67.9 67.9 68.0 68.1 68.1 68.4 68.8 69.4 70.2 70.6 70.9 71.3 2010 71.9 72.7 73.6 74.6 75.6 76.1 76.4 76.8 78.2 80.7 82.9 84.6 2011 86.2 88.0 90.7 94.6 99.3 104.1 107.7 109.3 109.7 110.1 111.1 113.2 2012 115.1 116.5 116.3 114.4 111.7 109.1 108.1 108.5 108.4 108.8 109.8 109.7 2013 108.9 108.7 107.9 108.2 110.0 112.5 115.1 118.3 122.3 124.1 124.5 125.1 2014 126.4 127.4 129.2e130.2e129.4e128.3e127.1e125.3e123.1e121.7e120.9e120.7e 2015 120.6e120.2e119.7 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.1 117.8 116.7 115.7 114.4 112.9 2016 111.8 110.9 109.8 108.1 106.3 104.6 103.1 101.6 100.4 99.1 97.8 96.8 2017 95.5 94.3 93.3 92.4 91.2 90.3 89.3 88.4 87.8 87.4 86.8 86.0 2018 85.1 84.4 83.6 82.7 82.0 81.1 80.2 79.4 78.9 78.4 78.0 77.5 2019 77.1 76.8 76.6 76.4 76.2 76.0 75.7 75.2 74.8 74.3 74.0 73.8 ============================================================================ This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting) and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24. Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on observed values; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values are used up to this time. All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are best described as equivalent solar flux values. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

(last updated 02 Sep 2014 00:29 UT)

OBSERVED MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 1995 24.2 29.9 31.1 14.0 14.5 15.6 14.5 14.3 11.8 21.1 9.0 10.0 1996 11.5 4.4 9.2 4.8 5.5 11.8 8.2 14.4 1.6 0.9 17.9 13.3 1997 5.7 7.6 8.7 15.5 18.5 12.7 10.4 24.4 51.3 22.8 39.0 41.2 1998 31.9 40.3 54.8 53.4 56.3 70.7 66.6 92.2 92.9 55.5 74.0 81.9 1999 62.0 66.3 68.8 63.7 106.4 137.7 113.5 93.7 71.5 116.7 133.2 84.6 2000 90.1 112.9 138.5 125.5 121.6 125.5 170.1 130.5 109.7 99.4 106.8 104.4 2001 95.6 80.6 113.5 107.7 96.6 134.0 81.8 106.4 150.7 125.5 106.5 132.2 2002 114.1 107.4 98.4 120.7 120.8 88.3 99.6 116.4 109.6 97.5 95.0 81.6 2003 79.5 46.2 61.5 60.0 55.2 77.4 85.0 72.7 48.8 65.6 67.2 47.0 2004 37.2 46.0 48.9 39.3 41.5 43.2 51.0 40.9 27.7 48.4 43.7 17.9 2005 31.3 29.2 24.5 24.4 42.6 39.6 39.9 36.4 22.1 8.5 18.0 41.2 2006 15.4 5.0 10.8 30.2 22.2 13.9 12.2 12.9 14.5 10.4 21.5 13.6 2007 16.9 10.6 4.8 3.7 11.7 12.0 10.0 6.2 2.4 0.9 1.7 10.1 2008 3.4 2.1 9.3 2.9 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.5 1.1 2.9 4.1 0.8 2009 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.2 2.9 2.6 3.5 0.0 4.2 4.6 4.2 10.6 2010 13.1 18.6 15.4 7.9 8.8 13.5 16.1 19.6 25.2 23.5 21.6 14.5 2011 19.0 29.4 56.2 54.4 41.6 37.0 43.9 50.6 78.0 88.0 96.7 73.0 2012 58.3 33.1 64.2 55.2 69.0 64.5 66.5 63.1 61.5 53.3 61.4 40.8 2013 62.9 38.0 57.9 72.4 78.7 52.5 57.0 66.0 36.9 85.6 77.6 90.3 2014 82.0 102.8 92.2 84.7 75.2 71.0 72.5 74.7

In more detail, the table above shows observed sunspot numbers (12 month smoothed) followed by estimated and predicted values. Estimated values have 'e' suffix indicating they are based partly on observed and partly on predicted data. Values in the table earlier than estimated values are observed; later values are predicted.

Although the prediction of solar cycles is difficult, it has practical applications. For example, in planning High Frequency (HF) communication links it is important to estimate what frequencies will be supported by the ionosphere well into the future. Predictions of sunspot number are also very important in planning space-related activities particularly for low Earth orbiting spacecraft.

IPS also provides a mailing list by which you can receive updated sunspot number predictions each month.

Below is a graph of sunspot numbers: observed monthly sunspot number (yellow), smoothed observed monthly sunspot number (red) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (blue).

Graph of Sunspot Numbers

(last updated 02 Sep 2014 00:29 UT)

FORECAST SOLAR CYCLE 24 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cycle Sol. Start Sol. Max Max SSN Length Rise to Max Max to End Year Mth Year Mth Yr Mth Years Mths Years Mths ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 2009 Jan 2014 Feb 78.4 12.0 144 5.2 62 6.8 82 IPS will adjust this forecast as the cycle unfolds. The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not made for short term variation, only for longer term cycle variation. September 2014 The original forecast maximum smoothed sunspot number of 70 was surpassed with a maximum of 78.4 in February 2014. The maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number is likely to be close to the current maximum value with the maximum of cycle 24 probably occurring early 2014.

A solar cycle viewing tool (zip file) is available for FTP download.

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