Last updated 17 Mar 2010 13:03 UT IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24 Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services Issued on Mar 01 2010 ------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1 2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6 2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1 2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0 2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2 2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0 2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1 2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.0 2008 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 2009 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.6 4.8 5.9e 6.5e 6.6e 6.7e 2010 6.9e 7.3e 7.7e 8.0e 8.5e 8.8e 8.8e 8.7e 8.8 9.1 10.3 11.7 2011 13.5 15.1 16.9 19.8 23.1 26.7 29.6 32.7 36.0 39.8 43.2 46.1 2012 48.8 52.9 57.3 61.2 63.4 65.7 67.9 70.5 73.1 75.4 78.1 80.5 2013 82.0 84.0 85.2 85.7 86.6 87.7 88.3 89.7 90.2 90.2 89.7 88.3 2014 88.0 87.1 87.1 86.8 86.8 87.1 87.1 86.6 86.6 85.7 83.8 81.7 2015 79.9 78.1 76.0 73.7 72.2 70.8 69.7 68.5 67.1 65.3 63.2 59.8 2016 56.4 53.2 51.1 49.2 47.5 45.9 44.2 42.3 40.3 38.7 37.5 37.0 2017 36.4 35.6 34.4 32.9 31.1 29.2 27.7 26.4 25.1 23.7 22.1 20.7 2018 19.6 18.7 17.8 17.0 16.0 15.3 14.6 14.1 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.2 2019 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 ============================================================================ ----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2 2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9 2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0 2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6 2004 103.2 100.8 98.9 97.6 96.2 94.4 93.3 92.5 91.2 89.9 89.5 89.4 2005 88.9 88.4 88.1 86.7 84.7 84.6 84.8 83.6 82.5 82.3 81.9 80.5 2006 79.0 77.6 76.8 76.7 76.8 76.2 75.5 75.7 75.7 74.8 73.9 73.6 2007 73.5 73.3 72.8 72.3 71.6 71.0 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 69.9 69.5 2008 69.1 68.8 68.6 68.7 68.7 68.6 68.4 68.3 68.1 67.9 67.9 67.8 2009 67.9 67.9 68.0 68.1 68.1 68.4 68.8 69.4 70.1e 70.3e 70.4e 70.5e 2010 70.6e 70.8e 71.0e 71.2e 71.5e 71.6e 71.7e 71.6e 71.6 71.8 72.5 73.3 2011 74.4 75.4 76.5 78.4 80.6 83.1 85.2 87.4 90.0 92.9 95.7 98.1 2012 100.3 103.8 107.7 111.2 113.2 115.3 117.4 119.8 122.3 124.5 127.1 129.4 2013 130.9 132.9 134.0 134.5 135.4 136.5 137.1 138.5 139.0 139.0 138.5 137.1 2014 136.8 135.9 135.9 135.6 135.6 135.9 135.9 135.4 135.4 134.5 132.7 130.6 2015 128.8 127.1 125.1 122.9 121.4 120.1 119.1 117.9 116.6 115.0 113.0 109.9 2016 106.9 104.1 102.3 100.7 99.2 97.9 96.5 94.9 93.3 92.1 91.1 90.7 2017 90.3 89.6 88.7 87.6 86.3 84.9 83.8 82.9 82.0 81.0 79.9 79.0 2018 78.2 77.7 77.1 76.6 75.9 75.5 75.1 74.8 74.6 74.3 74.0 73.6 2019 73.3 73.1 73.0 72.7 72.3 72.0 72.0 72.1 72.1 72.0 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================ This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting) and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24. Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values are used up to this time. All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are best described as equivalent solar flux values. Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ For more information please contact the centre at asfc@ips.gov.au PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed for the predictions issued from early November 2003. The revised technique is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last updated 17 Mar 2010 13:03 UT OBSERVED MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 1995 24.2 29.9 31.1 14.0 14.5 15.6 14.5 14.3 11.8 21.1 9.0 10.0 1996 11.5 4.4 9.2 4.8 5.5 11.8 8.2 14.4 1.6 0.9 17.9 13.3 1997 5.7 7.6 8.7 15.5 18.5 12.7 10.4 24.4 51.3 22.8 39.0 41.2 1998 31.9 40.3 54.8 53.4 56.3 70.7 66.6 92.2 92.9 55.5 74.0 81.9 1999 62.0 66.3 68.8 63.7 106.4 137.7 113.5 93.7 71.5 116.7 133.2 84.6 2000 90.1 112.9 138.5 125.5 121.6 125.5 170.1 130.5 109.7 99.4 106.8 104.4 2001 95.6 80.6 113.5 107.7 96.6 134.0 81.8 106.4 150.7 125.5 106.5 132.2 2002 114.1 107.4 98.4 120.7 120.8 88.3 99.6 116.4 109.6 97.5 95.0 81.6 2003 79.5 46.2 61.5 60.0 55.2 77.4 85.0 72.7 48.8 65.6 67.2 47.0 2004 37.2 46.0 48.9 39.3 41.5 43.2 51.0 40.9 27.7 48.4 43.7 17.9 2005 31.3 29.2 24.5 24.4 42.6 39.6 39.9 36.4 22.1 8.5 18.0 41.2 2006 15.4 5.0 10.8 30.2 22.2 13.9 12.2 12.9 14.5 10.4 21.5 13.6 2007 16.9 10.6 4.8 3.7 11.7 12.0 10.0 6.2 2.4 0.9 1.7 10.1 2008 3.4 2.1 9.3 2.9 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.5 1.1 2.9 4.1 0.8 2009 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.2 2.9 2.6 3.5 0.0 4.2 4.6 4.2 10.6 2010 13.1 18.6

For many purposes it is important to estimate the value of the sunspot number up to a solar cycle in advance. For example, in planning High Frequency (HF) communication links, before making investment decisions, it is important to estimate what frequencies will be able to be supported by the ionosphere in the future. Predictions of sunspot number are also very important in planning space-related activities and NASA are very interested in such predictions.

In more detail, the table below shows observed sunspot numbers (12 month smoothed) from 1995, followed by predicted values up to the year 2009. The values listed in the table with a qualifier "e" means that the value is based partly on observed and partly on predicted values. Values in the table earlier than these values are totally observed; later values are totally predicted.

IPS also has a mailing list by which you can receive updated sunspot number predictions each month. To subscribe to this mailing list click here

Below is a graph of sunspot numbers:

Last updated 17 Mar 2010 13:03 UT FORECAST SOLAR CYCLE 24 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cycle Sol. Start Sol. Max Max SSN Length Rise to Max Max to End Year Mth Year Mth Yr Mth Year Mth Year Mth ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 2010 Apr 2013 Oct 90.2 10.8 129 3.5 42 7.3 87 Solar cycle 24 is expected to begin (increasing sunpspot numbers) around April 2010. We are currently toward the end of an extended solar minimum. Description of Prediction Technique The prediction is based on the average of the last 8 solar cycles (Cycles 15 to 23). IPS will adjust this average cycle as the new cycle unfolds. To do this IPS has developed software for manipulating this predicted cycle. The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not made for short term variation, only for longer term cycle variation.

A solar cycle viewing tool (zip file) is available for ftp download here.