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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, May 31 2016 21:46 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 30 May 2016 23:51 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 30 May: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 86/29 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low over the past 24 hours with the largest event being a C1.4 flare from region 2550 (N13W21) at 0737UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed ranged between 450-550 km/s and is currently ~500km/s at the time of this report. A gradual decrease in solar wind speed is expected over the next 24 hours as the influence of the recent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream diminishes. The north south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-5nT with no sustained southward periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity due to a chance for C-class flares. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 30 May : A K Australian Region 7 22321311 Cocos Island 4 21220201 Darwin 3 11111111 Townsville 7 22321311 Learmonth 9 32331311 Alice Springs 7 22321301 Norfolk Island 6 22321201 Gingin 9 32321312 Camden 7 22321311 Canberra 7 22321311 Melbourne 8 22331311 Launceston 10 22431312 Hobart 8 22331311 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May : Macquarie Island 13 22441421 Casey 10 33322222 Mawson 29 64443225 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled) Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled) Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A Fredericksburg 13 Planetary 13 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 8 2212 1223 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled 01 Jun 6 Quiet 02 Jun 5 Quiet COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 31May with chance of isolated Active periods. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 01Jun-02Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next 3 days with mildly depressed ionospheric support at times for low to mid latitudes. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 30 May 40 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 30 May 47 Jun 46 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 31 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 01 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 02 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with occasional disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 29 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.3 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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