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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Feb 28 2015 17:26 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 27 Feb 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 27 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 118/70 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72 COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed varied between 330 and 360 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately between +5/-4 nT during most parts of the day today. A coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind stream strengthened from 28 February. There are three sunspots on the solar disk visible from the earth. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with the possibility of C-class activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K Australian Region 3 10111202 Cocos Island 1 00010101 Darwin 0 00------ Townsville 2 10111201 Learmonth 3 11111202 Alice Springs 2 10101202 Norfolk Island 1 00100111 Culgoora 3 10111202 Gingin 2 10101202 Camden 0 0------- Canberra 2 10001202 Melbourne 5 31112201 Launceston 5 11112302 Hobart 3 1------- Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb : Macquarie Island 0 00001100 Casey 9 23421212 Mawson 14 21112036 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : Hobart 0 (Quiet) Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 3 1021 1001 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 28 Feb 20 Quiet to minor storm 01 Mar 25 Unsettled to minor storm 02 Mar 20 Unsettled to minor storm COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 27 February and is current for 28 Feb to 1 Mar. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today. Due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels with possibility of some minor storm periods on 28 February. Activity may stay at unsettled to minor storm levels on 1 and 2 March due the the same effect. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Feb Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair 01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair 02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded on high latitude locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal in most other regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed, especially in the mid and high latitude regions, from 28 February to 2 March due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels through this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 27 Feb 99 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 60% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 104 Feb 90 Mar 90 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 28 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 20% 01 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 02 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 20% COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded in Southern Aus/NZ locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal in most other regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, from 28 February to 2 March due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels through this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 26 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B2.5 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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