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FORECAST SOL: Disturbed red MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green Looking for something? Site search go to search page
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Oct 25 2014 14:32 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 24 Oct 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 24 Oct: High Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M4.0 0748UT possible lower Mid East/Indian X3.2 2141UT probable all East Pacific/North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 218/168 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 220/170 COMMENT: Region 12192 (S14W22) produced the listed flares. This region maintains its size and magnetic complexity, although becoming less compact. AR 12195 (N09E48) has grown while the other three regions are stable. LASCO images show a CME directed to the south west that was associated with the M4 event. This CME is directed away from the ecliptic and not expected to be geo-effective. No images are available at this time for the X flare; no type II was associated with this event. ACE data show the solar wind speed mostly 400-480 km/s. The total field peaked at 7 nT with the north-south IMF +/-5 nT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K Australian Region 8 21122323 Cocos Island 4 2112121- Darwin 8 21122323 Townsville 9 21223323 Learmonth 6 21112322 Alice Springs 8 21122323 Norfolk Island 7 21112323 Culgoora 8 21122323 Gingin 9 31122332 Camden 10 22222333 Canberra 3 21110--- Launceston 10 21223333 Hobart 10 21223333 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct : Macquarie Island 14 11234522 Casey 16 44422323 Mawson 35 53333663 Davis 20 43443432 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled) Townsville 59 (Unsettled) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 16 (Quiet) Canberra 19 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 13 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 9 1222 3232 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 25 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled 26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled 27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Expected isolated active conditions did not eventuate on 24 Oct. The recurrent coronal hole has rotated well past a geo-effective position and is not expected to influence the geomagnetic field. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair 26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair 27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 24 Oct 109 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values with 20-40% enhancements 12-17, 20-21 UT. Niue Island Region: Enhanced 35-50% 00-05 UT then near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35% 12-14 UT at Townsville and 20-35% 10-13, 20-22 UT at Darwin. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Some enhancements to 25% around 09-15 UT. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 90 Oct 86 Nov 83 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 25 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 26 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 27 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: A sudden ionospheric disturbance occurred from ~2110 to ~2320 UT affecting eastern Australia to a greater extent. Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 23 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.3 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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