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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Wednesday, Jul 23 2014 23:43 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 23 Jul 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 23 Jul: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 99/46 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 115/66 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Some growth in a spot group in the southeast. Activity for the next 3 days is expected to be very low to low. The solar wind varied between 300-350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was positive for much of the UT day, then varying between +/-4 nT from around 17 UT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K Australian Region 2 11100121 Cocos Island 2 11100121 Darwin 3 12100122 Townsville 3 21100122 Learmonth 4 11100132 Alice Springs 2 10000121 Norfolk Island 3 13100011 Culgoora 2 11100112 Gingin 2 10000122 Camden 1 11000111 Canberra 1 10000111 Launceston 1 11000111 Hobart 1 00000111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul : Macquarie Island 0 00000010 Casey 3 12100122 Mawson 18 21110156 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : Darwin 17 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 5 3110 1211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 24 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled 25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled 26 Jul 5 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled conditions in the last few hours and storm level conditions developing in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 24-25 Jul, returning to quiet by 26-Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair 25 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair 26 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 23 Jul 42 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Depressed by 45% during local night. Depressed by 35% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 35% during local day. Depressed by 45% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 65 Jul 92 Aug 90 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 24 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values 25 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values 26 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 23 July and is current for 24-26 Jul. MUFs were depressed throughout the entire Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low latitudes. Nighttime enhancements were observed in Perth. Depressed MUFs are likely for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 22 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.8 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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