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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, Apr 24 2014 03:30 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 23 Apr 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 23 Apr: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 136/90 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78 COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours with several C class flares, the greatest being a C5.1 from region 2035(S13W85) at 1306 UT. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 450 to 400 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT during this time. Low levels of solar activity with a slight chance of isolated M-flare may be expected over the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K Australian Region 4 11112221 Cocos Island 3 11120120 Darwin 5 22111222 Townsville 6 22112222 Learmonth 7 12222321 Alice Springs 5 11112222 Norfolk Island 2 11011111 Culgoora 4 11112221 Gingin 5 11112222 Camden 4 11112221 Canberra 4 11012221 Launceston 6 12122222 Hobart 5 11122221 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr : Macquarie Island 3 00022210 Casey 10 23322232 Mawson 14 22222353 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : Darwin 2 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 1211 1221 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 24 Apr 5 Quiet 25 Apr 5 Quiet 26 Apr 5 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Apr Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Apr Normal Normal Normal 25 Apr Normal Normal Normal 26 Apr Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 23 Apr 105 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Mar 141 Apr 86 May 86 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 24 Apr 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values 25 Apr 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values 26 Apr 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three days in Aus/NZ regions. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 22 Apr Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B2.8 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 35700 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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