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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Jan 31 2015 16:09 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 30 Jan 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 30 Jan: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2/-- 1216UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 159/113 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105 COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Moderate levels with 3 M class flares over the previous 24 hours. Region 2268 produced an M1 flare peaking at 0044UT and a longer duration (1:06) M1 flare peaking at 0536UT. Region 2277 also produced a very short (11 minutes) M2 flare peaking at 1216UT. No CMEs were seen in LASCO coronagraphs in association with these or any other events. The solar wind remains moderately disturbed with speeds around 450 km/s and Bt between 5-10 nT and Bz fluctuation between +/- 5nT. Further M class flares are possible over the next few days and the solar wind disturbance is expected to continue, possibly becoming more disturbed from the 1st of Feb (UT). ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K Australian Region 6 22211132 Cocos Island 6 22211231 Darwin 6 2221113- Townsville - -------- Learmonth 7 22221232 Alice Springs 6 22211132 Norfolk Island 5 22211022 Culgoora 9 2223--32 Gingin 8 22211242 Camden 6 22211123 Canberra 5 22211122 Launceston 8 23211133 Hobart 7 22211133 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan : Macquarie Island 7 22221232 Casey 26 45632233 Mawson 33 34422374 Davis 3 1------- Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : Darwin 87 (Minor storm) Townsville NA Learmonth 2 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 5 (Quiet) Canberra 17 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 13 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 1101 1243 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 31 Jan 12 Unsettled 01 Feb 12 Unsettled 02 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled due to a continued high speed solar wind stream. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Jan Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 30 Jan 114 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 106 Jan 89 Feb 89 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 31 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 01 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values 02 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for the next few days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 29 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B9.4 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 67500 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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