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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Sunday, Aug 30 2015 13:55 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 29 Aug 2015 23:53 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Aug: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 100/48 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41 COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region 2403 (S15W82) the source of minor C-class events, the largest being a C2.4 event at 2037UT. LASCO imagery analysis of the two M-class events from 28Aug indicates no earth directed CME's. Region 2403 is due to rotate of the visible disk in the next 24 hours and has the potential for further M-class events. Solar wind speed remains elevated while under the influence of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream, ranging between 400km/s to 500km/s over the UT day. Bz gradually decreased in magnitude with no significant sustained southward periods, fluctuating between +/-10nT at 00UT to be +/-5nT at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 24 hours with Low to Very Low solar activity for 31Aug to 01Sep. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K Australian Region 7 32230221 Cocos Island 6 31230220 Darwin 8 42221221 Townsville 8 42221221 Learmonth 6 32220221 Alice Springs 6 32220221 Norfolk Island 7 32230211 Culgoora 7 32230211 Camden 7 32231211 Gingin 10 42230321 Canberra 6 32130211 Melbourne 7 32231211 Launceston 10 33241221 Hobart 9 32240221 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug : Macquarie Island 15 33251331 Casey 19 54442222 Mawson 26 44433263 Davis 19 43452232 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 14 (Quiet) Canberra 6 (Quiet) Melbourne 8 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A Fredericksburg 13 Planetary 17 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 28 Planetary 45 5433 5574 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 30 Aug 12 Unsettled 31 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled 01 Sep 6 Quiet COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 29 August and is current for 29-30 Aug. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible Active periods due to elevated solar wind speed from coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 31Aug to 01Sep. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor-fair 31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal 01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal COMMENT: Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-40% below long term predicted monthly values driven down by recent geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted values is expected to take longer than usual due to Low solar activity forecast for the next few days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Aug 21 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 45% during local day. Depressed by 55% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 45% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Depressed by 40% during local night. Depressed by 30% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 20% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 60 Aug 80 Sep 78 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 30 Aug 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values 31 Aug 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values 01 Sep 35 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 29 August and is current for 29-30 Aug. IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 29 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Depressed ionospheric support observed across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. Similar to improving ionospheric support expected over the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B5.7 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: -7 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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