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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Friday, Mar 27 2015 11:55 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 26 Mar 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 26 Mar: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 136/90 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89 COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with the greatest flare over the last 24 hours being a C2 from region 2305 (S09E07). Solar wind conditions are ambient with the speed dropping below 500 km/s and Bt less then 5nT. M class flares are possible from region 2305 over the next few days, but unlikely. A coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive late on the 27th or early on the 28th of March UT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K Australian Region 5 21202222 Cocos Island 5 21202222 Darwin 6 21202213 Townsville 7 22212322 Learmonth 7 22212322 Alice Springs 6 21202312 Norfolk Island 4 21202211 Culgoora 5 11212222 Gingin 5 21202222 Camden 6 11212213 Canberra 4 11202212 Launceston 6 22202222 Hobart 5 22202212 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar : Macquarie Island 3 11102211 Casey 10 34321122 Mawson 22 43431354 Davis 11 23332232 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 52 (Unsettled) Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled) Melbourne 109 (Major storm) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 11 2233 3232 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 27 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled 28 Mar 20 Active 29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain so until the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream either late on the 27th or early on the 28th of March UT. This may produce Active conditions with a chance of isolated Minor Storm conditions followed by Unsettled conditions for several days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair 28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair 29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 26 Mar 100 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Feb 116 Mar 90 Apr 89 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 27 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values 28 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values 29 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may be observed on the 28th and 19th of March due to expected geomagnetic activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 25 Mar Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B5.4 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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