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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, May 26 2015 03:31 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 25 May 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 25 May: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 97/44 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 26 May 27 May 28 May Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41 COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz mostly stayed between +/-4 nT during this period. Nearly similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated C-class activity. There is some possibility of a coronal hole effect to strengthen the solar wind stream from 28 May. Two long filaments on the solar disk visible from earthside, are also worth observing over the next few days as any eruption from them would have a good chance of being geoeffective. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet Estimated Indices 25 May : A K Australian Region 0 00100000 Darwin 0 00100001 Townsville 2 11110011 Learmonth 0 10010000 Alice Springs 0 00100000 Norfolk Island 0 01000000 Culgoora 0 01100000 Gingin 0 00100000 Camden 0 01000000 Canberra 0 00000000 Launceston 0 00001000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 2 22100010 Mawson 1 20010000 Davis 53 11123900 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 5 2110 1122 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 26 May 5 Quiet 27 May 5 Quiet 28 May 5 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three days with some possibility of unsettled periods on 28 May due to a possible arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 25 May 55 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 101 May 90 Jun 88 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 26 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 27 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 28 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this region for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 24 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.8 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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