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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Jul 28 2014 20:29 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 27 Jul 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 27 Jul: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 121/73 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89 COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with C2 and C1 flares from, respectively, regions 2125 (S12E71) and 2127 (S07E79). Region 2126 (S09E03) increased in area. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected to be low, with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind varied between around 320-390 km/s and the IMF Bz component between -5 to +6 nT, mostly negative for the 5 hours from 01 UT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K Australian Region 1 11100001 Cocos Island 1 11100000 Darwin 2 11210002 Townsville 2 11200012 Learmonth 1 11200000 Alice Springs 2 11200001 Norfolk Island 2 21100001 Culgoora 2 21100001 Gingin 1 11110000 Camden 2 21100001 Canberra 2 21100001 Launceston 2 21210001 Hobart 1 11100000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul : Macquarie Island 0 10000000 Casey 5 32311010 Mawson 7 33311110 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : Darwin 17 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 7 2222 2221 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 28 Jul 5 Quiet 29 Jul 5 Quiet 30 Jul 5 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian region over the last 24 hours, unsettled conditions were observed in Antarctica until around 09 UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 27 Jul 48 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 35% during local night. Depressed by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 35% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 65 Jul 92 Aug 90 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 28 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values 29 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values 30 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 26 July and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are likely for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 26 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B4.2 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 77600 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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