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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Aug 04 2015 17:53 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 03 Aug 2015 23:49 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 03 Aug: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 106/55 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54 COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly very low for 4 August. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed during 3 August, however there has been increased CME activity observed from the south-east limb suggesting there may be an active region that will soon rotate onto the visible disk. An increase in solar activity may be observed with this region over the next few days. Solar wind speeds have declined slowly during 3 August as the coronal hole solar wind stream abates. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K Australian Region 3 12112101 Cocos Island 2 12002100 Darwin 4 22102102 Townsville 4 12212101 Learmonth 4 12112202 Alice Springs 2 01102102 Norfolk Island 3 32101000 Culgoora 4 12212101 Gingin 5 12113211 Camden 4 12212101 Canberra 1 11101000 Launceston 4 12212111 Hobart 2 11110200 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug : Macquarie Island 1 01101100 Casey 10 33323211 Mawson 13 34332223 Davis 8 23322212 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 13 Planetary 12 4331 3223 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 04 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled 05 Aug 6 Quiet 06 Aug 5 Quiet COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with unsettled periods as the effects of a coronal hole wind stream abate. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 03 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 04 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 05 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 06 Aug Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions due to low levels of ionising solar flux are expected to continue at times over the next couple of days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 03 Aug 52 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 60 Aug 80 Sep 78 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 04 Aug 55 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values 05 Aug 55 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values 06 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed at times across the Australasian region during 3 August. These conditions are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Degraded conditions are expected to continue over the next two days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 02 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B2.4 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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