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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Jul 06 2015 18:07 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 05 Jul 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 05 Jul: Very low Flares: B class flares Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 125/78 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 5 Jul UT. AR 2381 produced a long-lived increase in X-ray intensity almost peaking at the C class level during 18 UT. Solar flare activity is expected to be low today, 6 Jul. The fast solar wind currently impacting Earth fluctuated in the range 400-600 km/s and is about 500 km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of the IMF steadily decreased from about 15 nT to 5 nT during 5 Jul. The IMF Bz component decreased to about -12 nT during 02 UT. The subsequent Bz southward excursions have been brief and weak. Fast solar wind with weak Bz southward excursions will continue today, 6 Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Active Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K Australian Region 14 44232322 Cocos Island 10 33232222 Darwin 13 44232222 Townsville 14 44232322 Learmonth 15 44332232 Alice Springs 12 34232322 Norfolk Island 10 34231221 Culgoora 14 44232322 Gingin 14 43332332 Camden 13 44232321 Canberra 8 33131211 Melbourne 15 44242322 Launceston 16 44243322 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul : Macquarie Island 18 34353322 Casey 13 43332223 Mawson 50 56553237 Davis 26 43433246 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 15 (Quiet) Canberra 4 (Quiet) Melbourne 7 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A Fredericksburg 20 Planetary 25 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 21 Planetary 29 1211 4475 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 06 Jul 12 Unsettled 07 Jul 6 Quiet to Unsettled 08 Jul 5 Quiet COMMENT: The arrival of fast solar wind during the second half of 4 Jul UT caused a short duration G2 class geomagnetic storm during early 5 Jul. Kp reached 6 during the 00-03 UT and the Australian region Dst index decreased to -115 nT during 04 UT on 5 Jul. Fast solar wind is still impacting Earth. However, the magnitude of the IMF has decreased to 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled during 6 Jul and quiet during 7 Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 05 Jul Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair 07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair 08 Jul Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced in the Northern Hemisphere and near predicted monthly values in the Southern Hemisphere during 5 Jul. These conditions were enhanced relative to the previous week, a positive effect of the G2 class geomagnetic storm which started late 4 Jul, continuing into early 5 Jul. Conditions are expected to return to near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere and slightly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere during the next 2 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 05 Jul 83 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 70 Jul 84 Aug 82 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 06 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values 07 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values 08 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near predicted monthly values throughout the Australian region during 5 Jul. These conditions were enhanced relative to the previous week, a positive effect of the G2 class geomagnetic storm occurring during 4-5 Jul. The conditions were more strongly enhanced at midlatitude stations. For example, preliminary T indices were 102 at Brisbane and 65 at Cocos Island. Similar conditions are expected today, 6 Jul, though trending back toward mildly depressed, especially at low latitude stations. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 04 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B3.2 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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