Daily Report

(last updated 19 Jun 2013 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 Jun: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 123/76 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89 COMMENT: The largest solar flare of June 19 was a C8.4 flare with maximum output at 09:54 UT. This event was from an active region located behind the south east limb. AR 1776 produced three C class flares, including a C3.5 flare, during June 19. AR 1773 produced the remaining C1.5 flare. The impressive AR 1775 has been stable. AR 1776 is approaching the geoeffective sweet spot. The large coronal hole located in the northern hemisphere is traversing the central meridian. SOHO LASCO C2 images show a succession of CMEs leaving the south west limb commencing at 01 UT on June 19. These CMEs were from an erupting prominence and are not Earthward pointing. The solar wind speed has been light but is presently rising toward 320 km/s. The solar wind density has been about 1-2 p/cc but is presently rising above 10 p/cc. The Bz southward excursions of June 18 ended at about 01 UT on June 19. Bz was predominantly northward during the first half of June 19 and then started trending southward again during the second half of the UT day. Bz is presently about -7 nT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K Australian Region 2 11100111 Cocos Island 2 10111111 Darwin 3 11110112 Townsville 6 22211222 Learmonth 2 11010021 Norfolk Island 1 11000001 Culgoora 2 11100111 Camden 1 11000111 Canberra 0 00000010 Hobart 0 00000110 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun : Macquarie Island 0 00001000 Casey 4 12111121 Mawson 16 42100163 Davis 6 22211132 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth NA Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 4 1210 1222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 Jun 6 Quiet 21 Jun 12 Unsettled 22 Jun 12 Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during June 19. Solar wind disturbances associated with a CME occurring on June 18 may increase geomagnetic activity during the next 48 hours. Fast solar wind from the large coronal hole located in the northern hemisphere may also increase geomagnetic activity during the next 48 hours. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Jun Normal Normal Normal 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Jun Normal Normal Normal 21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to remain near monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux was 123 on June 19 but may increase further as the next major solar active region continues to rotate around the south east limb. This may lead to a small increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 Jun 72 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values 21 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values 22 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to remain near monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux was 123 on June 19 but may increase further as the next major solar active region continues to rotate around the south east limb. This may lead to a small increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B4.4 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun Speed: 284 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: -3 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------