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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, Sep 18 2014 11:38 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 17 Sep 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 17 Sep: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 125/78 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72 COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C7 flare from region 2158 (N15W93). This flare started at 1926UT, peaked at 1948 UT and ended at 2013 UT. Solar wind speed stayed around 380 km/s during most parts of the UT day today while the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around 5 nT. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility of M-class activity during this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K Australian Region 4 11110222 Cocos Island 4 2-111221 Darwin 5 22111222 Townsville 4 11011222 Learmonth 4 11111222 Alice Springs 3 11100222 Norfolk Island 2 11000221 Culgoora 3 11------ Gingin 3 21100211 Camden 4 11110222 Canberra 1 00000111 Launceston 5 12111222 Hobart 2 11100211 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep : Macquarie Island 1 11000010 Casey 5 33200001 Mawson 7 43100211 Davis 5 33210100 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : Darwin 4 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 6 2212 2122 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 18 Sep 5 Quiet 19 Sep 5 Quiet 20 Sep 5 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels today. Nearly similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Sep Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 Sep Normal Normal Normal 19 Sep Normal Normal Normal 20 Sep Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours with up to 35% enhancements in MUFs at times in some regions. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 17 Sep 95 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 35% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Aug 72 Sep 88 Oct 84 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 18 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20% 19 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20% 20 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20% COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours with up to 35% enhancements in MUFs at times in some parts of this region. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 16 Sep Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B5.5 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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