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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Friday, Apr 18 2014 11:08 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 17 Apr 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 17 Apr: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 179/132 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C class flares, mostly from previously M flaring region 2035. The solar wind speed has steadily increased over the last day to around 450km/s commensurate with an increase in the IMF total field strength to around 10nt, with some southward excursions. ACE satellite data is suggestive that this is due to a solar sector boundary crossing. A CME was observed, first appearing in SOHO coronagraph imagery at 0125UT. The material looks to be directed mainly to the south of the ecliptic plane however some minor impacts may be experienced on the 19th-20th from this event. Further C class flare activity is expected with some chance of M class flares. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K Australian Region 7 32212221 Cocos Island 6 32211220 Darwin 6 32211221 Townsville 8 32312222 Learmonth 7 32212230 Alice Springs 6 22211231 Norfolk Island 7 3221122- Culgoora 5 22211221 Gingin 6 32201230 Camden 7 32212221 Canberra 6 22212221 Launceston 9 33212231 Hobart 6 22212221 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr : Macquarie Island 11 21104511 Casey 14 43521121 Mawson 20 44422352 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : Darwin 13 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 4 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 4 0001 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 18 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled 19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled 20 Apr 12 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been mostly Quiet with some Unsettled periods. These conditions may persist for one more day, followed by possible mild impacts from the edge of a CME. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Apr Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 Apr Normal Normal Normal 19 Apr Normal Normal Normal 20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 17 Apr 118 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 100% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 55% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Mar 141 Apr 86 May 86 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 18 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values 19 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values 20 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values. Some adverse conditions may be experienced on the 20th of April due to possible geomagnetic activity. Any reductions in the MUF are expected to be minor. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 16 Apr Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B8.7 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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