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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Sep 30 2014 11:48 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 29 Sep 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Sep: Low Flares: C class flares Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 175/129 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 175/129 COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux was 175 on Sep 29 and is expected to rise to a local maximum during the next 2-3 days before slowly declining again. Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Sep 29. AR 2177 produced the largest flare of the day, a C5.4 event peaking at 05:54 UT. Several solar active regions have the potential to release an M class flare today and there is a small chance of an X ray flare. Solar activity is expected to be moderate during Sep 30 to Oct 1. GONG H alpha images show two 20-degrees long filaments located in the western hemisphere. They are stable at the time of this report. There are also no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed declined to about 350 km/s and the magnitude of the IMF is about 6 nT. The Bz component has been fluctuating in the approximate range -5 nT to +5 nT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K Australian Region 8 12232132 Cocos Island 5 12211131 Darwin 8 12222233 Townsville 8 12233122 Learmonth 10 22232233 Alice Springs 7 12222132 Norfolk Island 7 11233121 Culgoora 8 12233122 Gingin 11 21232243 Camden 9 12233132 Canberra 4 01122122 Launceston 9 12233232 Hobart 9 11233232 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep : Macquarie Island 13 11453121 Casey 17 34432143 Mawson 31 23322375 Davis 14 23322153 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : Darwin 13 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 5 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 1212 2222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled 01 Oct 6 Quiet 02 Oct 6 Quiet COMMENT: The solar wind speed has been gradually declining. Isolated disturbed intervals are possible because of sustained intervals of weakly southward IMF conditions. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Sep Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair 01 Oct Normal Normal Normal 02 Oct Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected to be enhanced due to elevated solar UV flux. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Sep 117 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 55% during local day. Enhanced by 60% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Aug 72 Sep 88 Oct 84 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 30 Sep 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 01 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 02 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly enhanced to strongly enhanced throughout all regions on Sep 29. Conditions were enhanced up to 70% during day time intervals above Niue. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced during the next 3 days due to increasing solar UV flux. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Sep Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.3 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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