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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Sep 01 2014 21:04 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 31 Aug 2014 23:40 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 31 Aug: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 125/78 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78 COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares from regions 2149(N09W63)and 2152(S17E27), the largest being a C7 at 1211UT from region 2149. Region 2152 increased in area and magnetic complexity while other regions are mostly stable. Expect solar activity to be Low with a slight chance of an M-class event for the next 3 days. A CME was observed ~1248UT and may be associated with region 2149. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs observed in available SOHO/STEREO images on 31 Aug. Solar wind speed remained around 450km/s over the UT day and the IMF Bz component ranged between +/-5nT, mostly southward ~08-10UT, to -8nT. A small coronal hole may influence the solar wind stream late in the UT day today, 01 Sep. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled with one isolated Active to Minor Storm period. Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K Australian Region 9 11342222 Cocos Island 5 11221122 Darwin 10 22342222 Townsville 9 22352223 Learmonth 3 1------- Alice Springs 10 12342222 Norfolk Island 4 11252121 Culgoora 5 11252222 Gingin 11 22342232 Camden 5 11252222 Canberra 5 01252222 Launceston 10 32363222 Hobart 7 11362222 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug : Macquarie Island 26 11374222 Casey 13 23432233 Mawson 30 34434265 Davis 24 23433264 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug : Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled) Townsville 2 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 19 (Quiet) Canberra 18 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 14 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 15 3423 4222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 01 Sep 14 Quiet to Active. 02 Sep 14 Quiet to Active 03 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet. COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. There was an isolated Active to Minor Storm period at some stations ~09-12UT, most likely due to a minor dip in the Bz component of the IMF. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods late in the UT day on the 01 Sep into 02 Sep, due to the effects of a coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly Quiet day 3, 03 Sep in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CMEs. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 02 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 03 Sep Normal Normal Normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 31 Aug 68 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% 16-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times. Niue Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values with occasional depressions to 20%. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 68 Aug 91 Sep 87 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 01 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values 02 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values 03 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours with occasional depressed periods for Equatorial region during local night. Possible elevated geomagnetic activity in the next 24 hours may result in slightly depressed MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions for 01-02 Sep. MUF's at predicted monthly values and normal ionospheric support for most regions expected for 03 Sep. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 30 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B4.6 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 88900 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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