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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Dec 20 2014 09:39 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 19 Dec 2014 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 Dec: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.3 0944UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 216/166 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 210/161 COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 19 December, with an M-class flare and several C-class flares occurring from active region 2242. Note, active region 2241 continues to subflare in H-alpha. The largest flare over the UT day, 19 December, was an M1.3 from active region 2242 (S18W29), peaking at 19/0944 UT. LASCO C3 imagery shows yesterday's flare (M6.9 class 18/2158UT) to have a halo CME and based on Enlil model is expect to arrive early in the UT day, 21 December. CME occurring on 17 December has not arrived yet and is expected to hit within the next 12 hours. Expect Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days. Note there is a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar wind speed ranged between 350-400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component ranged between +6/-7 nT. Expect the solar wind speed to remain in this range until arrival of expected CME. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K Australian Region 6 21211223 Cocos Island 3 11111111 Darwin 7 21222223 Townsville 9 31212323 Learmonth 6 21222222 Alice Springs 6 21211213 Norfolk Island 5 11111123 Culgoora 5 221112-- Gingin 5 21211212 Camden 7 22211223 Canberra 4 11111212 Hobart 7 22221223 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec : Macquarie Island 7 12231222 Casey 25 55533223 Mawson 21 43433344 Davis 19 34533323 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 4 1110 2212 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 Dec 20 Active 21 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm 22 Dec 12 Unsettled COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 19 December and is current for 21 Dec only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian region during the UT day, 19 December. Antarctic region ranged from Quiet to Minor Storm. Expect Quiet conditions to prevail until expected arrival of CME, when activity levels will likely increase to Unsettled to Active levels in the Australian region with isolated periods of Minor to Major storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes. Active to Minor Storm levels are expected to continue on 21 December with the arrival of a second CME. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Dec Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair 21 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor 22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next few days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 Dec 134 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Nov 113 Dec 87 Jan 87 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 21 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 22 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 17 December and is current for 18-20 Dec. IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 19 December and is current for 21-22 Dec. MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 19 December. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed in the eastern Australian regions. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values are expected today, 20 December. Expect near predicted values with periods of depressed conditions on 21-22 December due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 Dec Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.4 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 52200 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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