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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Nov 01 2014 13:50 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 31 Oct 2014 23:49 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 31 Oct: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 121/73 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60 COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest event being a C2.3 flare from region 2201 (S05E53) at 0825UT. Solar wind speed remained slightly above 400km/s over the majority of the UT day. Bz was predominantly northward, ranging between +10nT and -8nT over the UT day. A narrow northern hemisphere located coronal hole may influence the solar wind stream in the next 48 hours having moved into geoeffective position. The average solar x-ray flux level has gradually declined over the last 48 hours since large active region 2192 rotated off of the visible. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K Australian Region 5 12211122 Cocos Island 3 12111111 Darwin - -------- Townsville 7 22222132 Learmonth 4 11111122 Alice Springs 5 12211122 Norfolk Island 4 12111122 Culgoora 5 12211122 Gingin 7 3-221222 Camden 6 -3211122 Canberra 3 12111021 Launceston 8 23212232 Hobart 6 13212122 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct : Macquarie Island 4 03201021 Casey 30 46642123 Mawson 19 34323154 Davis 18 34433143 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : Darwin NA Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 20 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 4 1111 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 01 Nov 5 Quiet 02 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled 03 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for 01Nov and mostly Quiet conditions for 02Nov-03Nov with possible Unsettled periods and isolated Active periods at high latitudes due to minor coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 31 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair 02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair 03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 31 Oct 125 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: No data available. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 90 Oct 86 Nov 83 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 01 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 02 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values 03 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced ionospheric support for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day and during local night for Equatorial regions. Extended periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic regions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 30 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.3 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 52000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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