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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Oct 20 2014 17:55 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 19 Oct 2014 23:34 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 Oct: High Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors X1.1 0506UT probable all E. Asia/Aust. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 173/127 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. Region 2192(S13E43) produced a long duration X1 flare which peaked at 0503UT. A CME has not been confirmed from LASCO imagery, but given the location it is unlikely that this CME is earth directed. Region 2192 is the largest (> 1200 mils) and most complex (beta-gamma/Fkc), showed strong growth overnight and hold potential for further M class flares and a chance of an isolated X class flare during the forecast period. Background x-ray flux has increased. The CME associated with the 18 Oct filament eruption is not expected to impact Earth. Solar wind speeds are presently ~ 420km/s and Bz component ranged in the neutral +/-5nT. Light (~ 400km/s) solar wind speeds are expected for the next 48 hours. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect day 3, 22 Oct. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K Australian Region 7 22223022 Cocos Island 5 22222021 Darwin 8 23223122 Townsville 7 22223122 Learmonth 8 32223022 Alice Springs 7 22223022 Norfolk Island 6 22112131 Culgoora 7 22223022 Gingin 8 32223122 Camden 7 22223022 Canberra 4 12212021 Launceston 10 33323022 Hobart 9 23323022 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct : Macquarie Island 8 22224121 Casey 18 45432123 Mawson 18 54333232 Davis 22 35444331 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : Darwin 17 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 7 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 15 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 13 3322 3433 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled 21 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled 22 Oct 16 Active COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over the Australian region. Conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled 20-21 Oct with possible isolated Active intervals should any Bz southward excursions occur. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect day 3, 22 Oct. Level of disturbance will depend on direction and duration of the north-south IMF. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Oct Normal Normal Normal 21 Oct Normal Normal Normal 22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3 days. Possible short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 Oct 90 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 30% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 90 Oct 86 Nov 83 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 21 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 22 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over most of the regions. Expected to continue at or slightly above median MUFs for next 2 days due to to high levels of ionising EUV flux. Some isolated depressions are possible during day 3, 22 October in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. There was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF) recorded at some locations from the long duration X-class Flare from large spot group AR2192 at ~0445UT on the 19th. Short wave fadeouts possible for the forecast period with a reasonable chance of M and isolated X flares from AR2192. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B8.3 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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