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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Apr 27 2015 07:07 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 26 Apr 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 26 Apr: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 119/71 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66 COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Two C-class flares were observed from region 2331(S10W53). These flares peaked at 1149 UT and 2057 UT . The solar wind speed showed further gradual decline from around 340 to 300 km/s through the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT, staying positive for relatively longer periods of time today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K Australian Region 1 11000001 Cocos Island 1 11010000 Darwin 0 10000001 Townsville 1 11001001 Learmonth 1 11100000 Alice Springs 0 10000000 Norfolk Island 1 11000001 Culgoora 1 10101001 Gingin 0 10000000 Camden 1 11000001 Canberra 0 10000000 Launceston 1 11001001 Hobart 0 10000000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 2 12110000 Mawson 1 11100001 Davis 0 01100000 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne 8 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 2 0000 0111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 27 Apr 2 Quiet 28 Apr 2 Quiet 29 Apr 2 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 Apr Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Apr Normal Normal Normal 28 Apr Normal Normal Normal 29 Apr Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements as well as periods of minor MUF depressions on some mid latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 26 Apr 86 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 50% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Mar 99 Apr 90 May 89 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 27 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values 28 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values 29 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today in Aus/NZ regions with some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements as well as periods of minor MUF depressions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next three days in this region. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 25 Apr Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B5.1 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: 2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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