[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 12 issued 2347 UT on 12 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 13 10:47:37 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: No Significant X-ray events observed for the past 24 
hours. Region 1439 still maintain beta-gamma-delta configuration 
and may produce M-X class flares. A CME was observed in SOHO 
imagery at around 0125UT. STEREO imagery suggests it is not Earth 
directed. A shock was observed in ACE solar wind data at around 
0842UT due to the arrival of the CME observed on March 9. The 
IMF BZ dropped to around -20nT during this event, maintained 
negative for about 2 hours, trending towards neutral at the time 
of this report. The solar wind speed increased from 445 to 560Km/s 
at about 0840UT due to the shock arrival, reached 775 Km/s at 
17UT and is currently 770Km/s. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 12/0715UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. A shock 
from the CME observed on March 10 is expected early day one of 
the forecast period.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Major Storm

Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      22   22265322
      Darwin              19   22264322
      Townsville          22   22265322
      Learmonth           24   22265432
      Norfolk Island      16   21255222
      Camden              22   22265322
      Canberra            13   11154321
      Hobart              22   22265322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    35   22376332
      Casey               34   45365334
      Mawson              46   43366465
      Davis               56   33375475

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   2212 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    40    Major Storm
14 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active
15 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: A shock passage from the CME of March 09 was observed 
at the ACE satellite platform at around 0840UT. A geomagnetic 
sudden impulse (30nT) impulse was observed on the IPS magnetometer 
network at 0915UT. The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid 
latitudes was Quiet prior to the event, with Minor to Major Storm 
periods observed following impact from around 10UT to 14UT, after 
which conditions declined to Quiet to Unsettled. At high latitudes 
conditions were mostly at Major to Severe Storm levels following 
the sudden impulse. A shock from the CME of March 10 is expected 
early day one of the forecast period, Active to Major Storm conditions 
are expected.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began at 0530UT 07/03, Ended at 2135UT 12/03

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes 
next two days due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor Ionospheric support. 

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.
14 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.
15 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Highly variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus 
regions with strong enhancements at times. Ongoing disturbances 
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Expect further ionospheric disturbance 
days one and two affecting higher latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    68900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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