[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 12 issued 2333 UT on 22 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 23 10:33:55 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, with just a 
single C-class flare. Solar activity is expected to be at Low 
or Very Low levels over the next 3 days. AR1440 (S25W40) has 
reduced in magnetic complexity, and is less likely to flare above 
C level. Solar wind/IMF conditions were relatively stable with 
a low solar wind speed over the first half of the UT day. After 
~16UT, solar wind speed, density and IMF total magnetic field 
abruptly increased, likely due to the leading edge of a coronal 
hole wind stream. A sustained period of southward-directed IMF 
(~ -6nT) continues at the time of this report.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010022
      Darwin               6   21110133
      Townsville           4   11010132
      Learmonth            6   22011133
      Norfolk Island       2   11100022
      Camden               3   12010022
      Canberra             1   01000012
      Hobart               3   12100022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   01000011
      Casey                9   33210024
      Mawson              16   24220026

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1011 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet for most of the UT day. 
The arrival, late in the UT day, of a coronal hole wind stream 
with a sustained interval of southwards IMF raised activity levels 
across all locations after ~19UT. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be Quiet-Unsettled days 1 and 2 (23-24 Mar), returning 
to mostly Quiet day 3 (25-Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day, with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Some 
periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus locations overnight, 
degrading HF conditions there. MUFs are expected to remain near 
predicted monthly values over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    45700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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