[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 12 issued 2327 UT on 24 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 25 10:27:39 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Moderate

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day with an 
M1.0 flare at 0900UT from AR1445 (S26E60), an active region newly 
rotated onto the south-eastern limb. Associated with the flare 
was a Type II radio burst (shock speed 580-860km/s) and a weak 
CME in SOHO LASCO imagery. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. 
AR1445 is an E-class spot group with a beta magnetic configuration, 
and has the potential to produce further isolated M-class flares, 
as it rotates into a more geoeffective position. Solar activity 
is therefore expected to be at Low-Moderate levels. The solar 
wind speed increased over the period to ~450km/s. The IMF was 
mostly stable over the UT day, with an isolated period of sustained 
southwards orientation ~04-07UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet-Unsettled, with an
isolated Active period

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12422211
      Darwin               9   22422212
      Townsville           9   12432211
      Learmonth            8   22332211
      Norfolk Island       7   22422110
      Camden               9   12432211
      Canberra             3   11310100
      Hobart               8   12422211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     8   02502110
      Casey               12   24332322
      Mawson              22   33522354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3002 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar     5    Quiet
27 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet-Unsettled over 
the UT day, with an isolated Active period ~06-09UT, as a result 
of a sustained period of southward-directed IMF. Expect Quiet-Unsettled 
conditions day 1 (25-Mar), and mostly Quiet conditions days 2 
and 3 (26-27 Mar).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day, with MUFs near predicted monthly values, with 
the exception of some mild overnight depressions in the equatorial 
regions. Some periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus locations 
overnight, degrading HF conditions there. MUFs are expected to 
remain near predicted monthly values over the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    46900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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