[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 05 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 6 09:29:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1323UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    2302UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Numerous C flares and an M1.4 from newly numbered region 
1476 (N09E67) at 1323 UT and an M1.3 at 2301 UT. Region 1476 
has M-flare potential at this time. CMEs were observed in STEREO 
and SDO images at approx. 0309, 0539 and 1924 UT. The 0539 UT 
CME appears to have been associated with region 1470 (S15W32). 
A disappearing filament in the north east quadrant was associated 
with the 1924 UT CME. It is expected there will be effects from 
these CMEs. ACE data show solar wind parameters were mostly
undisturbed over the reporting period. Solar wind parameters may
be mildly disturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               2   11112001
      Townsville           5   12212112
      Learmonth            3   11121101
      Norfolk_Island       1   11011010
      Camden               0   00011000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   01011000
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie_Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   222110--
      Mawson               3   20111021
      Davis                5   12221211
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2200 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     6    Quiet to unsettled 
07 May     7    Quiet to unsettled 
08 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
08 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 May    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      04-12 UT, depressions to 30% 14-17, 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      00-05, 21-23 UT, depressions to 35% 08-15 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      10-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20%. Depressions to 35% 10-18 UT at
      Hobart, Learmonth and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
      12-20 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    65    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May    65    Near predicted monthly values 
08 May    65    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes. 
Short-wave fadeouts possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    34900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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