[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 12 issued 2342 UT on 13 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 14 09:42:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Active region 1476 (N11W29) now appears to be in a declining 
phase, but still maintains potential for significant flare activity. 
Solar activity today was low with only two significant C-class 
flares at 0401 and 0721UT, both originating in AR 1476. A narrow 
SE-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 10UT. 
A large filament eruption was observed on the E limb during the 
second half of the UT day. Neither event is likely to have geoeffective 
consequences. Several new sunspot regions emerging on the East 
limb were numbered today. Solar wind speed remains elevated due 
to a persistent coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind speed declined 
slightly over the day and is expected to continue to decline 
over the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF was neutral 
but with a mild negative bias 06-17UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232221
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville          11   32333222
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Norfolk Island       7   32222221
      Camden               7   22232221
      Canberra             4   12221111
      Hobart               8   22332221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
      Macquarie Island    20   22364322
      Casey                9   33222222
      Mawson              40   65433256
      Davis               21   54332343

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3222 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with an Unsettled 
period 06-12UT at low to mid latitudes. Conditions at high latitudes 
were Unsettled to Active. Expect similar conditions day one due 
to persistence of the present coronal hole wind stream. There 
is a possibility of briefly Unsettled to Active conditions day 
one or two due to a glancing blow from the CME observed May 12. 
Conditions should decline to generally Quiet day three.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 May    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed 35% 14-18UT. Enhanced to 25% 10-12UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% 21-23UT
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Darwin enhanced to 30% 05-10UT. Depressed 40% 12-16UT.
      Brisbane depressed to 30% 07-11UT.
      Townsville no data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Canberra, Sydney depressed 25% 08-10UT.
      Norfolk Is., Hobart no data. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      variable conditions with periods of disturbance.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
15 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
16 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic 
region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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