[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 12 issued 2342 UT on 15 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 16 09:42:25 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             122/75

COMMENT: Region 1476 (N10W56)produced few low level C-class flares. 
This region has decayed in size and complexity. There continues 
to be the chance of an isolated M-class flare over the forecast 
period. New region 1485(S19E65) was numbered today. A CME was 
observed in STEREO images at 1324UT, further images are required 
to determine its path. Solar wind speed decreased from 450 to 
~350 Km/s while the IMF Bz was mostly neutral until 07UT then 
mostly northward. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at low 
levels for the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22210001
      Darwin               4   22211002
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            6   32221102
      Norfolk Island       3   22210011
      Camden               2   22110001
      Canberra             2   12100001
      Hobart               2   22110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100000
      Casey                7   33311101
      Mawson               7   33321001
      Davis               10   34322112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   3210 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     5    Quiet
17 May     5    Quiet
18 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: A very weak signature of the anticipated glancing blow 
from May 12 CME in ACE data. The embedded Bz component of the 
CME shock has been north biased, limiting geomagnetic disturbance. 
Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain mostly 
Quiet for the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
17 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
18 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Blanketing sporadic E was observed for much of the local 
night at Hobart. Brief periods of night time depressions observed 
at all latitudes. Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Overnight depressions possible at times 
at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    51800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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